MARTÍNEZ DELIVERS ON HIS CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PROMISE
Everton finish fourth. His first season ends with a Champions League play-off place.
Not a real headline. Imagined from the No-City model and alleged-breach era; no honours are officially reassigned. DIRECT MODEL: fourth meant entry to the Champions League play-off round, not guaranteed group-stage qualification.
Everton’s 115 Effect
Everton finish fourth. Martínez takes them into the Champions League play-off in his first season.
The front page above is imagined; the recorded story starts here.What really happened
Roberto Martínez's first Everton season produced 72 points and fifth place. Romelu Lukaku scored 15 league goals on loan, while a young Ross Barkley and John Stones were part of a side that pushed Arsenal deep into the race for fourth.
The City effect
Everton had already experienced City's growing transfer power when Joleon Lescott moved to Manchester in 2009 after a prolonged pursuit. The sharper direct effect comes in 2013/14: Everton lost both league games against City, so removing those fixtures leaves their 72 points untouched and moves them from fifth to fourth.
What changes?
This is about repeated places near the top, not a trophy. League position and historical UEFA qualification remain separate.
Actual: 5th · 72 pts
No-City: 4th · 72 pts
These are recalculated league positions, not official honours, qualification decisions or a proposed remedy.
The butterfly effect 🦋
Fourth place under the rules then in force meant a Champions League play-off, not guaranteed group-stage football. That distinction matters. But Everton now enter summer 2014 with a route to Europe's biggest competition while turning Lukaku's loan into a permanent transfer. Do they win the play-off? Does the budget change? Does Martínez's project last longer? The model cannot answer those questions; it creates the opportunity to ask them.
- Summer 2014Alternative history
Barry signs permanently, Lukaku arrives for a club-record £28m and Eto'o joins. Now add a Champions League play-off to that summer.
- The questionAlternative history
Does Martínez's Champions League project become a lasting one rather than a brilliant first season?
The legacy
Recorded history went the other way: Everton finished 11th in each of the next two seasons and Martínez was eventually dismissed. That makes the fork sharper, not easier. Does Champions League access help sustain the momentum, or does the second-season drop happen anyway? The calculation opens the door; it does not tell us what Everton do after walking through it.
The data / show me the receipts
Every Everton Premier League season in the charged-era model, including the ones where nothing changes.
Season-by-season league impact
| Season | Actual | Actual outcome | No-City | No-City outcome | Impact | Pts vs City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 8th · 61 pts | — | 7th · 55 pts | — | +1 league place · -6 points | 6 |
| 2010/11 | 7th · 54 pts | — | 7th · 48 pts | — | no position change · -6 points | 6 |
| 2011/12 | 7th · 56 pts | — | 6th · 53 pts | — | +1 league place · -3 points | 3 |
| 2012/13 | 6th · 63 pts | — | 6th · 59 pts | — | no position change · -4 points | 4 |
| 2013/14 | 5th · 72 pts | — | 4th · 72 pts | Top four → Top four | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 11th · 47 pts | — | 9th · 46 pts | — | +2 league places · -1 point | 1 |
| 2015/16 | 11th · 47 pts | — | 10th · 46 pts | — | +1 league place · -1 point | 1 |
| 2016/17 | 7th · 61 pts | — | 6th · 57 pts | — | +1 league place · -4 points | 4 |
| 2017/18 | 8th · 49 pts | — | 7th · 48 pts | — | +1 league place · -1 point | 1 |
Outcome labels show champions, top-four finishes and relegation. The No-City column describes the recalculated 19-team table; it does not automatically reassign UEFA qualification. *Tottenham finished fourth in 2011/12 but entered the Europa League after Chelsea won the Champions League under the rules then in force.
Every league match against City
| Season | Date | Home | Score | Away | Result | Club pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 2010-01-16 | Everton | 2–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2009/10 | 2010-03-24 | Manchester City | 0–2 | Everton | W | 3 |
| 2010/11 | 2010-12-20 | Manchester City | 1–2 | Everton | W | 3 |
| 2010/11 | 2011-05-07 | Everton | 2–1 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2011/12 | 2011-09-24 | Manchester City | 2–0 | Everton | L | 0 |
| 2011/12 | 2012-01-31 | Everton | 1–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2012/13 | 2012-12-01 | Manchester City | 1–1 | Everton | D | 1 |
| 2012/13 | 2013-03-16 | Everton | 2–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2013/14 | 2013-10-05 | Manchester City | 3–1 | Everton | L | 0 |
| 2013/14 | 2014-05-03 | Everton | 2–3 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2014-12-06 | Manchester City | 1–0 | Everton | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2015-01-10 | Everton | 1–1 | Manchester City | D | 1 |
| 2015/16 | 2015-08-23 | Everton | 0–2 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 2016-01-13 | Manchester City | 0–0 | Everton | D | 1 |
| 2016/17 | 2016-10-15 | Manchester City | 1–1 | Everton | D | 1 |
| 2016/17 | 2017-01-15 | Everton | 4–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2017/18 | 2017-08-21 | Manchester City | 1–1 | Everton | D | 1 |
| 2017/18 | 2018-03-31 | Everton | 1–3 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
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Where does this story go next?
See the receipts · editorial notes
2013/14 actual: Everton fifth, 72 points. Audited No-City: fourth, 72 points.
Martínez publicly framed Champions League qualification as Everton's goal; the model does not claim they would have won the qualifying tie.
Everton's 2013/14 accounts reported £120.5m turnover, £28.2m profit and net debt reduced to £28.1m. Lukaku's £28m permanent signing fell into the following accounting year.