MAHREZ STAYS!
Leicester keep their title-winning superstar as Foxes build for another Champions League push.
Not a real headline. Imagined from the No-City model and alleged-breach era; no honours are officially reassigned.
Leicester City’s 115 Effect
Leicester conquer England. City come for Mahrez. Then Leicester miss the Champions League by inches.
The front page above is imagined; the recorded story starts here.Follow the money.
The identifiable financial effect from changed league positions and European qualification.
What really happened
Leicester's story starts with something the model does not need to change. They won the 2015/16 Premier League and, even after losing four points when City's fixtures disappear, they are still champions. The miracle survives the calculation.
The City effect
The story then moves forward. City pursued Riyad Mahrez in January 2018 and signed him that summer. The pursuit came during 2017/18, the final season covered by the Premier League's alleged financial-information breaches. Those allegations are contested and do not establish that the Mahrez deal was improperly funded. For Leicester, the football question is what happens to a champion side as its defining players move on.
What changes?
The title stays theirs in both histories. Removing the City fixtures takes four points off their total, not four points onto it.
Actual: 1st · 81 pts
No-City: 1st · 77 pts
These are recalculated league positions, not official honours, qualification decisions or a proposed remedy.
The Financial Effect 💰
The title stays · the European story changes later. Follow the changed league positions into the European qualification effects we can measure.
The total uses identifiable position-linked distributions and a lower-to-central UEFA range. It does not price the wider butterfly effect.
The butterfly effect 🦋
Leicester did not disappear after the miracle. They later finished fifth in 2019/20 and fifth again in 2020/21, when they ended just one point behind fourth-place Chelsea. Another Champions League season does not guarantee they avoid the later decline, but it changes the platform: money, status and another reason for players to stay. The question is no longer whether Leicester could win the miracle title. They did. It is whether the miracle could have become an era.
- The questionAlternative history
Could another season at Europe's top table have helped turn the miracle into an era?
The legacy
Another Champions League season would not guarantee Leicester avoid later decline or relegation. It would, however, change the financial and sporting platform. The question is whether the miracle could have become an era.
A title that stays put
A storytelling convention, not an official award or a prediction of who would win without City.
Leicester CityUnchanged in the separate No-City model; not one of the reassigned trophies.The data / show me the receipts
Every Leicester City Premier League season in the charged-era model, including the ones where nothing changes.
Season-by-season league impact
| Season | Actual | Actual outcome | No-City | No-City outcome | Impact | Pts vs City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 14th · 41 pts | — | 13th · 41 pts | — | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 1st · 81 pts | Champions | 1st · 77 pts | 1st | no position change · -4 points | 4 |
| 2016/17 | 12th · 44 pts | — | 13th · 41 pts | — | -1 league place · -3 points | 3 |
| 2017/18 | 9th · 47 pts | — | 8th · 47 pts | — | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
Outcome labels show champions, top-four finishes and relegation. The No-City column describes the recalculated 19-team table; it does not automatically reassign UEFA qualification. *Tottenham finished fourth in 2011/12 but entered the Europa League after Chelsea won the Champions League under the rules then in force.
Every league match against City
| Season | Date | Home | Score | Away | Result | Club pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 2014-12-13 | Leicester City | 0–1 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2015-03-04 | Manchester City | 2–0 | Leicester City | L | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 2015-12-29 | Leicester City | 0–0 | Manchester City | D | 1 |
| 2015/16 | 2016-02-06 | Manchester City | 1–3 | Leicester City | W | 3 |
| 2016/17 | 2016-12-10 | Leicester City | 4–2 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2016/17 | 2017-05-13 | Manchester City | 2–1 | Leicester City | L | 0 |
| 2017/18 | 2017-11-18 | Leicester City | 0–2 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2017/18 | 2018-02-10 | Manchester City | 5–1 | Leicester City | L | 0 |
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Where does this story go next?
See the receipts · editorial notes
2015/16: actual champions; hypothetical No-City champions with four fewer points.
Mahrez context is a later football link; no causal claim is made between the Premier League's contested allegations and his transfer.
2019/20 and 2020/21 are later recorded-history context, not part of the charged-era fixture-removal model.