UNITED ARE CHAMPIONS
Ferguson denies City the title. 93:20 never happens.
Not a real headline. Imagined from the No-City model and alleged-breach era; no honours are officially reassigned.
Manchester United’s 115 Effect
Ferguson wins No.20, then wins again. Manchester's changing of the guard looks very different.
The front page above is imagined; the recorded story starts here.Follow the money.
The identifiable financial effect from changed league positions and European qualification.
What really happened
United began 2011/12 as England's record 19-time league champions. They ended it level with City on 89 points, losing the title on goal difference. 93:20 became the unforgettable final scene, but for United the bigger event was that the league championship had crossed Manchester.
The City effect
Our calculation changes that handover. United lost both derbies, so removing City's fixtures takes no points from their 89. United finish first: title No.20 arrives a year early. Their real 2012/13 title then becomes No.21 in the alternative history, and Ferguson retires after back-to-back championships. The model also puts Mourinho's United first in 2017/18.
What changes?
They lost both derbies in 2011/12. No points are removed from United’s 89; in the hypothetical table, that changes who finishes first.
Actual: 2nd · 89 pts
No-City: 1st · 89 pts
Actual: 2nd · 81 pts
No-City: 1st · 78 pts
These are recalculated league positions, not official honours, qualification decisions or a proposed remedy.
The Financial Effect 💰
One Europa League → Champions League qualification change. Follow the changed league positions into the European qualification effects we can measure.
The total uses identifiable position-linked distributions and a lower-to-central UEFA range. It does not price the wider butterfly effect.
The butterfly effect 🦋
Now David Moyes inherits a different Manchester United. Replacing Ferguson is still enormous, but he follows a manager retiring after consecutive titles, with City yet to take a Premier League championship from Ferguson. City are still wealthy and powerful; the pressure does not vanish. But the symbolic changing of the guard has not happened in the same way. Does that make the post-Ferguson transition any less brutal?
- 2011/12Alternative history
United finish first in the No-City table: imagined league title No.20.
- 93:20Alternative history
The famous moment remains recorded history, but it no longer defines this imagined title race.
- 2012/13Alternative history
United win the real next title; in this branch it becomes No.21 and a second consecutive championship.
- Summer 2013Alternative history
Moyes replaces Ferguson with Manchester's symbolic changing of the guard yet to happen in the same way.
The legacy
Would Moyes last longer? There is no way to know. United's post-Ferguson problems had many causes. But the psychology of the succession, and the story of Manchester's changing of the guard, begins from a very different place.
+4 rewritten honours
A storytelling convention, not an official award or a prediction of who would win without City.
The data / show me the receipts
Every Manchester United Premier League season in the charged-era model, including the ones where nothing changes.
Season-by-season league impact
| Season | Actual | Actual outcome | No-City | No-City outcome | Impact | Pts vs City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 2nd · 85 pts | Top four | 2nd · 79 pts | Top four | no position change · -6 points | 6 |
| 2010/11 | 1st · 80 pts | Champions | 1st · 76 pts | 1st | no position change · -4 points | 4 |
| 2011/12 | 2nd · 89 pts | Top four | 1st · 89 pts | 1st → 1st | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 1st · 89 pts | Champions | 1st · 86 pts | 1st | no position change · -3 points | 3 |
| 2013/14 | 7th · 64 pts | — | 6th · 64 pts | — | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 4th · 70 pts | Top four | 3rd · 67 pts | Top four | +1 league place · -3 points | 3 |
| 2015/16 | 5th · 66 pts | — | 4th · 62 pts | Top four → Top four | +1 league place · -4 points | 4 |
| 2016/17 | 6th · 69 pts | — | 5th · 68 pts | — | +1 league place · -1 point | 1 |
| 2017/18 | 2nd · 81 pts | Top four | 1st · 78 pts | 1st → 1st | +1 league place · -3 points | 3 |
Outcome labels show champions, top-four finishes and relegation. The No-City column describes the recalculated 19-team table; it does not automatically reassign UEFA qualification. *Tottenham finished fourth in 2011/12 but entered the Europa League after Chelsea won the Champions League under the rules then in force.
Every league match against City
| Season | Date | Home | Score | Away | Result | Club pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 2009-09-20 | Manchester United | 4–3 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2009/10 | 2010-04-17 | Manchester City | 0–1 | Manchester United | W | 3 |
| 2010/11 | 2010-11-10 | Manchester City | 0–0 | Manchester United | D | 1 |
| 2010/11 | 2011-02-12 | Manchester United | 2–1 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2011/12 | 2011-10-23 | Manchester United | 1–6 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2011/12 | 2012-04-30 | Manchester City | 1–0 | Manchester United | L | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 2012-12-09 | Manchester City | 2–3 | Manchester United | W | 3 |
| 2012/13 | 2013-04-08 | Manchester United | 1–2 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2013/14 | 2013-09-22 | Manchester City | 4–1 | Manchester United | L | 0 |
| 2013/14 | 2014-03-25 | Manchester United | 0–3 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2014-11-02 | Manchester City | 1–0 | Manchester United | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2015-04-12 | Manchester United | 4–2 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2015/16 | 2015-10-25 | Manchester United | 0–0 | Manchester City | D | 1 |
| 2015/16 | 2016-03-20 | Manchester City | 0–1 | Manchester United | W | 3 |
| 2016/17 | 2016-09-10 | Manchester United | 1–2 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2016/17 | 2017-04-27 | Manchester City | 0–0 | Manchester United | D | 1 |
| 2017/18 | 2017-12-10 | Manchester United | 1–2 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2017/18 | 2018-04-07 | Manchester City | 2–3 | Manchester United | W | 3 |
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Where does this story go next?
See the receipts · editorial notes
2011/12 actual: City and United both 89; City champions on goal difference. United lost both derbies, so their model total remains 89.
United's official 2012/13 championship was their 20th; calling it No.21 belongs only to the clearly labelled alternative branch.
2017/18 actual: United second on 81; hypothetical No-City first on 78.