SPURS BREAK THROUGH — AGAIN
City no longer blocks the road into the Champions League places.
Not a real headline. Imagined from the No-City model and alleged-breach era; no honours are officially reassigned.
Tottenham Hotspur’s 115 Effect
City no longer blocks the road into the Champions League places.
The front page above is imagined; the recorded story starts here.What really happened
Spurs had already shown they could get through the door: Crouch’s goal at the Etihad in May 2010 secured fourth place and their first modern-era Champions League qualification.
The City effect
The striking thing is not one imagined trophy but repeated movement into or up the top four in the fixture-removal model. There is a wrinkle: historical UEFA rules displaced fourth-place Spurs in 2011/12 after Chelsea won the Champions League. A modelled league place never automatically confers qualification.
What changes?
This is about repeated places near the top, not a trophy. League position and historical UEFA qualification remain separate.
Actual: 5th · 62 pts
No-City: 4th · 61 pts
Actual: 4th · 69 pts
No-City: 2nd · 69 pts
Actual: 5th · 72 pts
No-City: 4th · 69 pts
Actual: 5th · 64 pts
No-City: 4th · 64 pts
Actual: 3rd · 77 pts
No-City: 2nd · 77 pts
These are recalculated league positions, not official honours, qualification decisions or a proposed remedy.
The butterfly effect 🦋
What if Spurs keep returning to the places where elite clubs build the next season? Recruitment and retention are questions here, not things a league table can predict.
- The questionAlternative history
Spurs do not just break in once. What if they keep coming back?
The legacy
Would repeated Champions-League-position finishes change player retention, recruitment or the ceiling of Mauricio Pochettino’s side? Perhaps. It is a question about compounding advantage, not a claim that every modelled fourth place became a real qualification.
+1 rewritten honour
A storytelling convention, not an official award or a prediction of who would win without City.
The data / show me the receipts
Every Tottenham Hotspur Premier League season in the charged-era model, including the ones where nothing changes.
Season-by-season league impact
| Season | Actual | No-City | Impact | Pts vs City |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 4th · 70 pts | 4th · 64 pts | no position change · -6 points | 6 |
| 2010/11 | 5th · 62 pts | 4th · 61 pts | +1 league place · -1 point | 1 |
| 2011/12 | 4th · 69 pts | 2nd · 69 pts | +2 league places · no points removed | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 5th · 72 pts | 4th · 69 pts | +1 league place · -3 points | 3 |
| 2013/14 | 6th · 69 pts | 5th · 69 pts | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 5th · 64 pts | 4th · 64 pts | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 3rd · 70 pts | 3rd · 64 pts | no position change · -6 points | 6 |
| 2016/17 | 2nd · 86 pts | 2nd · 82 pts | no position change · -4 points | 4 |
| 2017/18 | 3rd · 77 pts | 2nd · 77 pts | +1 league place · no points removed | 0 |
Every league match against City
| Season | Date | Home | Score | Away | Result | Club pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 2009-12-16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2009/10 | 2010-05-05 | Manchester City | 0–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3 |
| 2010/11 | 2010-08-14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0–0 | Manchester City | D | 1 |
| 2010/11 | 2011-05-10 | Manchester City | 1–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2011/12 | 2011-08-28 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–5 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2011/12 | 2012-01-22 | Manchester City | 3–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 2012-11-11 | Manchester City | 2–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2012/13 | 2013-04-21 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–1 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2013/14 | 2013-11-24 | Manchester City | 6–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2013/14 | 2014-01-29 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–5 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2014-10-18 | Manchester City | 4–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2014/15 | 2015-05-03 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0–1 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
| 2015/16 | 2015-09-26 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4–1 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2015/16 | 2016-02-14 | Manchester City | 1–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | W | 3 |
| 2016/17 | 2016-10-02 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2–0 | Manchester City | W | 3 |
| 2016/17 | 2017-01-21 | Manchester City | 2–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | D | 1 |
| 2017/18 | 2017-12-16 | Manchester City | 4–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | L | 0 |
| 2017/18 | 2018-04-14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–3 | Manchester City | L | 0 |
2011/12: the historical UEFA rules displaced fourth-place Spurs after Chelsea won the Champions League. A modelled league place is not automatic qualification.
Explore all No-City tables →Share
Where does this story go next?
See the receipts · editorial notes
Position changes listed are hypothetical No-City league calculations, not automatic Champions League places.
2011/12 qualification caveat: Chelsea’s Champions League win displaced fourth-place Spurs under the rules then in force.