The table changes.
Then the money does.
Across Villa's Premier League seasons in the model, changed finishing positions alone produce £24.25m in identifiable position-linked distributions. European qualification adds a second, still-being-audited layer.
£24.25m from league position
This is the part we can calculate most directly.
For each Villa Premier League season, we compare the actual finishing position with the rebuilt No-City table and apply that season's position-linked distribution value. Positive and negative seasons both count.
| Season | Actual → No-City | Effect |
|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | 6th → 5th | +£0.80m |
| 2010/11 | 9th → 12th | −£2.27m |
| 2011/12 | 16th → 15th | +£0.76m |
| 2012/13 | 15th → 12th | +£2.27m |
| 2013/14 | 15th → 15th | £0 |
| 2014/15 | 17th → 16th | +£1.24m |
| 2015/16 | 20th → 19th | +£1.24m |
| 2019/20 | 17th → 16th | +£3.18m |
| 2020/21 | 11th → 9th | +£4.33m |
| 2021/22 | 14th → 12th | +£4.11m |
| 2022/23 | 7th → 6th | +£3.11m |
| 2023/24 | 4th → 3rd | +£2.82m |
| 2024/25 | 6th → 5th | +£2.66m |
| Exact model total | £24.25m | |
The displayed season values are rounded. The underlying calculation totals £24,247,164.
Two thresholds change
Villa cross a European competition boundary twice in the model.
Seventh becomes sixth.
Sixth becomes fifth.
We are auditing the value of those changes against historical UEFA distributions to English clubs. Rather than publish the biggest plausible number, the model is being tested against a hard participation floor, a Premier League club benchmark and a broader progression scenario.
Why no £ figure yet? Because the sporting change is established, but the most defensible way to value hypothetical European performance is still being tested.
No survival value added
Villa finished 20th in 2015/16. In the No-City table they move to 19th, but they are still relegated.
So the financial model adds £0 for relegation. Moving a place is already captured in the Premier League position calculation; there is no additional survival effect.
Evidence first. Assumptions visible.
£24.25m is the identifiable Premier League position effect in the current model. It is not a compensation claim and it does not price sponsorship, player values, transfers, matchday income or the wider butterfly effect.
Read the full methodology